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  • Category Archives Stock
  • January Barometer

    The January barometer is the hypothesis that stock market performance in January (particularly in the US) predicts its performance for the rest of the year. So if the stock market rises in January, it is likely to continue to rise by the end of December. Probably the best known is “as January goes, so goes the year”. Another says that the first 5 trading days determine the market’s returns for the whole year ahead. And another says that how January performs predicts the direction of the market for the remaining months of the year. The January barometer was first mentioned by Yale Hirsch in 1972. Historically if the S&P 500 goes up in January the trend will follow for the rest of the year. Conversely if the S&P falls in January then it will fall for the rest of the year.

  • Halloween indicator

    The Halloween indicator is a variant of the stock market adage “Sell in May and go away,” the belief that the period from November to April has significantly stronger growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stocks are sold at the start of May and the proceeds held in cash; stocks are bought again in the autumn, typically around Halloween. This Halloween indicator is partially related to another well known effect: The January Effect.


  • Even a stopped clock is right twice a day

    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day

    There are many different ways to predicate stock market.  Some are well known, some are not, but all theories have their true believers. First I will list a few very “reliable rules”. Then I will list a few common but not so reliable ones. For each of the topic below, we will have follow up posts with in depth study and discussions.

    Reliable Rules:

    Rule #1 Buy low and sell high: everyone knows that, this rule for sure is working, I definitely believe it!

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